Matt PoyntingAFL Previews: Round 8
May 14th 2008 11:44
Should be a good round so let's get straight into it:
Collingwood vs. St Kilda – Friday/7:40pm, Telstra Dome
This will be an interesting game if past results are anything to go by. We have seen Collingwood become a very inconsistent side pulling off a 73 point thumping and a 65 point loss in back to back weeks while St Kilda have somehow managed to creep as high as 5th on the ladder after round 7. The Saints have been a far from dominant side this season with some very shaky wins both early in the season (Sydney – two point win) and recently (Richmond – 3 point win). Judging from predictions made prior to the commencement of the season proper, St Kilda should be in the top 3 but instead have managed to produce some average performances and just slip into 5th. A win here will boost their confidence. Collingwood have been very average. They lacked intensity against Hawthorn in round 7 not unlike their game against Carlton in which they went down by 19 points. Collingwood are due for a win by the rule of averages having recorded from round 1: W-L-W-L-L-W-L. If the Magpies can stay in this contest and lift their intensity to another level, they should pick up the win.
Tip: Collingwood by 5
Hawthorn vs. Port Adelaide – Saturday/2:10pm, Aurora Stadium
With the Power just starting to find themselves, this could be a great game. I will even go as far as saying this may be the turning point in Port’s season. Should Mark William’s boys pick up an upset win here, they will have forgotten their tumultuous start to 2008 and really be on the way back up. With a number of Port Adelaide players backing up from last week’s Hall of Fame match, and Hawthorn well represented in that area as well, and their respective players should be well rested and trained by game time. I honestly believe Hawthorn will win this one comfortably but you cannot discount Port Adelaide. They can be an extremely powerful team at times with the Kornes brothers, the Burgoynes, Warren Tredrea and Daniel Motlop among others, very dangerous players. Lance Franklin obviously must be contained as well as just about every Hawk. Too hard a job for the Power I think.
Tip: Hawthorn by 21
Richmond vs. Geelong – Saturday/2:10pm, MCG
Only a fool could predict a thumping here with Richmond having provided some incredible highlights and unsettled some big-time teams already this season. Their tie against the Western Bulldogs proved to be no fluke as they went down to the highly fancied St Kilda by only 3 points. With Kane Johnson, Nathan Brown and Nathan Foley playing as well as they are, and Matthew Richardson in the top 4 Coleman hopefuls, Richmond won’t go down easy. Geelong are, however, powering their way through the first half of this season and have reaped the benefits of hard training and good teamwork with an undefeated record. All their players are performing with 11 picked for the Hall of Fame game. The boys from across the bay will get the job done here.
Tip: Geelong by 17
Carlton vs. Brisbane Lions – Saturday/7:10pm, Telstra Dome
This has the potential to be match of the round if both sides play to their newly found potential. Brisbane are looking superb of recent with veterans the likes of Luke Power, Simon Black and Daniel Bradshaw as well as the evergreen Jonathan Brown, all firing. Bradshaw has covered quite a bit for Brown – who has been quiet - so far this season. Yet the Lions haven’t had all the results go their way, sitting 10th on the ladder with a 3-4 record. The Blues have suddenly started to gain momentum and will be extremely confident after their 39 point thumping of West Coast last round. Brendan Fevola is kicking as many as ever and should continue after a bag of 6 for his beloved Victoria. Carlton could challenge the Lions here, but it won’t be enough.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 15
North Melbourne vs. West Coast – Saturday/7:10pm, Gold Coast Stadium
It’s relatively safe to say that the Kangaroos will win this one. West Coast have been shockingly inconsistent this season both in their play and, consequently their results. The 10 goal loss to Sydney was bad enough, repeated again against the Western Bulldogs and then last round, the Eagles lost by 39 points to Carlton. It’s proving to be a torturous season for West Coast fans. Having lost key players both through injury (Kerr – 2 weeks) and releases (Judd, Cousins), West Coast are heavily on the back foot and relying on Dean Cox to pull them through. The big man is showing signs of wear. North have been decent so far this season, sitting in 7th spot on the ladder with a 3-3-1 record. Their key players, namely Brent Harvey and Shannon Grant are really giving the statisticians their money’s worth. The ‘Roos will win this one but West Coast will play better than they have.
Tip: North Melbourne by 7 points
Adelaide vs. Melbourne – Sunday/12:40pm, AAMI Stadium
Have we seen the turning point in Melbourne’s season? The catalyst for revival? Finals hopes reignited? No. Far from it in fact. Although last round’s win against Fremantle was a huge result for the club and an incredible effort by the team, the likes of which we haven’t yet seen from the Dees this season, many will tell you it was a fluke. I personally do not believe it was, however they will definitely struggle to back it up here against the Crows. Russell Robertson remains a sole threat up forward and not many lethal options lie in the midfield. Adelaide have it all going at the moment. They sit in 4th on the ladder having lost only 2 games and their forward line can match it with any in the league. Brett Burton and Simon Goodwin provide some great leads up front. The Crows will be far too good for Melbourne this time.
Tip: Adelaide by 34
Sydney vs. Essendon – Sunday/2:10pm, ANZ Stadium
Another interesting game as both sides are still trying to find themselves in season 2008. Essendon have been on the receiving end of some nasty losses this year while Sydney have shown glimpses of brilliance before returning to the standard form of football they are known for. Barry Hall is still serving injury and suspension time but Ryan O’Keefe is providing a great substitute in the forward 50. The Swans were disappointing against the Western Bulldogs last round going down by 3 goals, they will improve and should out-perform Essendon. The Dons have been very ordinary this season and lack the intensity they showed last year when they just missed out on the finals. Matthew Lloyd is a solid option in the forward line and is assisted by Dustin Fletcher. Jobe Watson is providing a great deal of support in the midfield. Essendon need a big win, unfortunately it won’t come here.
Tip: Sydney by 19
Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs – Sunday/2:40pm, Subiaco
The Dockers have had a week to recover from what many would say is the worst loss in the history of the club. After Melbourne were down by 51 points in the second quarter, they somehow recovered to win by a goal. Mark Harvey was devastated but, as a professional coach, couldn’t allow it to faze him. They will move on but must now face one of the toughest teams in the competition in the Western Bulldogs. Matthew Pavlich has been superb for the Dockers this year and has been supported strongly by Peter Bell in the midfield and Aaron Sandilands as the number one ruckman in the league with 222 hit-outs. Western Bulldogs are a brilliant side that quietly goes about winning with a steely determination that has resulted in an undefeated streak. The Bulldogs have been particularly punishing in the forward 50 with Brad Johnson, Ryan Griffen and Jason Akermanis all having a hand in a prolific season goal count. Adam Cooney is also performing solidly having already gained a few Brownlow predictions. The Bulldogs will be too good on Sunday.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 26
Last Week: 4/8
Collingwood vs. St Kilda – Friday/7:40pm, Telstra Dome
This will be an interesting game if past results are anything to go by. We have seen Collingwood become a very inconsistent side pulling off a 73 point thumping and a 65 point loss in back to back weeks while St Kilda have somehow managed to creep as high as 5th on the ladder after round 7. The Saints have been a far from dominant side this season with some very shaky wins both early in the season (Sydney – two point win) and recently (Richmond – 3 point win). Judging from predictions made prior to the commencement of the season proper, St Kilda should be in the top 3 but instead have managed to produce some average performances and just slip into 5th. A win here will boost their confidence. Collingwood have been very average. They lacked intensity against Hawthorn in round 7 not unlike their game against Carlton in which they went down by 19 points. Collingwood are due for a win by the rule of averages having recorded from round 1: W-L-W-L-L-W-L. If the Magpies can stay in this contest and lift their intensity to another level, they should pick up the win.
Hawthorn vs. Port Adelaide – Saturday/2:10pm, Aurora Stadium
With the Power just starting to find themselves, this could be a great game. I will even go as far as saying this may be the turning point in Port’s season. Should Mark William’s boys pick up an upset win here, they will have forgotten their tumultuous start to 2008 and really be on the way back up. With a number of Port Adelaide players backing up from last week’s Hall of Fame match, and Hawthorn well represented in that area as well, and their respective players should be well rested and trained by game time. I honestly believe Hawthorn will win this one comfortably but you cannot discount Port Adelaide. They can be an extremely powerful team at times with the Kornes brothers, the Burgoynes, Warren Tredrea and Daniel Motlop among others, very dangerous players. Lance Franklin obviously must be contained as well as just about every Hawk. Too hard a job for the Power I think.
Richmond vs. Geelong – Saturday/2:10pm, MCG
Only a fool could predict a thumping here with Richmond having provided some incredible highlights and unsettled some big-time teams already this season. Their tie against the Western Bulldogs proved to be no fluke as they went down to the highly fancied St Kilda by only 3 points. With Kane Johnson, Nathan Brown and Nathan Foley playing as well as they are, and Matthew Richardson in the top 4 Coleman hopefuls, Richmond won’t go down easy. Geelong are, however, powering their way through the first half of this season and have reaped the benefits of hard training and good teamwork with an undefeated record. All their players are performing with 11 picked for the Hall of Fame game. The boys from across the bay will get the job done here.
Tip: Geelong by 17
Carlton vs. Brisbane Lions – Saturday/7:10pm, Telstra Dome
This has the potential to be match of the round if both sides play to their newly found potential. Brisbane are looking superb of recent with veterans the likes of Luke Power, Simon Black and Daniel Bradshaw as well as the evergreen Jonathan Brown, all firing. Bradshaw has covered quite a bit for Brown – who has been quiet - so far this season. Yet the Lions haven’t had all the results go their way, sitting 10th on the ladder with a 3-4 record. The Blues have suddenly started to gain momentum and will be extremely confident after their 39 point thumping of West Coast last round. Brendan Fevola is kicking as many as ever and should continue after a bag of 6 for his beloved Victoria. Carlton could challenge the Lions here, but it won’t be enough.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 15
North Melbourne vs. West Coast – Saturday/7:10pm, Gold Coast Stadium
It’s relatively safe to say that the Kangaroos will win this one. West Coast have been shockingly inconsistent this season both in their play and, consequently their results. The 10 goal loss to Sydney was bad enough, repeated again against the Western Bulldogs and then last round, the Eagles lost by 39 points to Carlton. It’s proving to be a torturous season for West Coast fans. Having lost key players both through injury (Kerr – 2 weeks) and releases (Judd, Cousins), West Coast are heavily on the back foot and relying on Dean Cox to pull them through. The big man is showing signs of wear. North have been decent so far this season, sitting in 7th spot on the ladder with a 3-3-1 record. Their key players, namely Brent Harvey and Shannon Grant are really giving the statisticians their money’s worth. The ‘Roos will win this one but West Coast will play better than they have.
Tip: North Melbourne by 7 points
Adelaide vs. Melbourne – Sunday/12:40pm, AAMI Stadium
Have we seen the turning point in Melbourne’s season? The catalyst for revival? Finals hopes reignited? No. Far from it in fact. Although last round’s win against Fremantle was a huge result for the club and an incredible effort by the team, the likes of which we haven’t yet seen from the Dees this season, many will tell you it was a fluke. I personally do not believe it was, however they will definitely struggle to back it up here against the Crows. Russell Robertson remains a sole threat up forward and not many lethal options lie in the midfield. Adelaide have it all going at the moment. They sit in 4th on the ladder having lost only 2 games and their forward line can match it with any in the league. Brett Burton and Simon Goodwin provide some great leads up front. The Crows will be far too good for Melbourne this time.
Tip: Adelaide by 34
Sydney vs. Essendon – Sunday/2:10pm, ANZ Stadium
Another interesting game as both sides are still trying to find themselves in season 2008. Essendon have been on the receiving end of some nasty losses this year while Sydney have shown glimpses of brilliance before returning to the standard form of football they are known for. Barry Hall is still serving injury and suspension time but Ryan O’Keefe is providing a great substitute in the forward 50. The Swans were disappointing against the Western Bulldogs last round going down by 3 goals, they will improve and should out-perform Essendon. The Dons have been very ordinary this season and lack the intensity they showed last year when they just missed out on the finals. Matthew Lloyd is a solid option in the forward line and is assisted by Dustin Fletcher. Jobe Watson is providing a great deal of support in the midfield. Essendon need a big win, unfortunately it won’t come here.
Tip: Sydney by 19
Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs – Sunday/2:40pm, Subiaco
The Dockers have had a week to recover from what many would say is the worst loss in the history of the club. After Melbourne were down by 51 points in the second quarter, they somehow recovered to win by a goal. Mark Harvey was devastated but, as a professional coach, couldn’t allow it to faze him. They will move on but must now face one of the toughest teams in the competition in the Western Bulldogs. Matthew Pavlich has been superb for the Dockers this year and has been supported strongly by Peter Bell in the midfield and Aaron Sandilands as the number one ruckman in the league with 222 hit-outs. Western Bulldogs are a brilliant side that quietly goes about winning with a steely determination that has resulted in an undefeated streak. The Bulldogs have been particularly punishing in the forward 50 with Brad Johnson, Ryan Griffen and Jason Akermanis all having a hand in a prolific season goal count. Adam Cooney is also performing solidly having already gained a few Brownlow predictions. The Bulldogs will be too good on Sunday.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 26
Last Week: 4/8
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