Matt PoyntingAFL Round 16 Previews
July 17th 2008 00:11
We are hitting crunch time in the AFL with only 6 weeks remaining in the regular season. Let's see what Round 16 has in store:
Friday 18th July, 2008 – Telstra Dome, 7:40pm
COLLINGWOOD vs. NORTH MELBOURNE
An interesting match-up as both teams have recorded opposite mid-season results. The Kangaroos have slid somewhat in the last few weeks to 9th while Collingwood have enjoyed two very pleasing wins over difficult opponents to see themselves a mere 2 points out of the top 4. One component of Collingwood’s play to look out for here is their use of the ball up the wings. Collingwood are one of the most effective teams in moving the ball from the kick-in to a scoring position as they often surprise teams with their efficiency up the flanks. North Melbourne will also need to be wary of the switch to the open side of the field as the Magpies have plenty of speed in the midfield. Where the Kangaroos can apply some serious pressure is with Collingwood’s indecisiveness. Kicking and handballing backwards and to marked players often leads to turnovers and with the Kangaroos’ defence, it could pose a problem to the Pies. Dale Thomas and Paul Medhurst have both found form of recent for the Pies while Daniel Harris and Adam Simpson’s defensive work and of course Brent Harvey’s attack could pose a problem for the Black and Whites. Last time they met, it was the Roos by 7. With both teams coming off difficult wins, this could be a thriller.
Tip: Collingwood by 8
Saturday 19th July, 2008 – Skilled Stadium, 2:10pm
GEELONG vs. WESTERN BULLDOGS
With Gary Ablett Jr. and Cameron Ling out, this is shaping up to be a match of the year candidate. Both teams are looking to secure top 2 spots on the ladder. With a win here, the Bulldogs can claim the mantle of ‘top dogs’ in the competition. Geelong are simply brilliant all across the field. Their defence is outstanding, second only to Sydney, the midfield is one of the best in the league – sporting last year’s Brownlow medallist – and their forward line is second only to the Bulldogs in terms of points scored. Losing Ablett will be a huge blow not only to the Cats point scoring and ball-movement, but also mentally. Ablett is the type of player that adds massive amounts of confidence to a team. Also, with Ling gone for 3-4 weeks, the Cats suffer a great loss as he is one of the better defenders in the league.
As was mentioned earlier, the Bulldogs have scored the most points in the league. With an average losing margin of only 3 points, they have an enormous chance of defeating the Cats. I believe that if they can do it, they may just claim the minor premiership this year. A re-invented Jason Akermanis, Ryan Griffen and Brad Johnson make-up the imposing forward line, while Adam Cooney and Daniel Cross provide support in the midfield. Hopefully for the Dogs, they will be lifted by the possible return of Mitch Hahn. The Bulldogs must apply tackling pressure if they are to beat the Cats.
Tip: Bulldogs by 9
Saturday 19th July, 2008 – MCG, 2:10pm
RICHMOND vs. ESSENDON
11th plays 12th here as the Tigers, who thumped West Coast last week, take on the Bombers who, in defeating the Lions last match, won their fourth game in a row. The Bombers are tipped to be possible dark horses this year. By the end of round 21, is it possible that the Dons could be in the 8? Another win here will definitely have teams like Carlton, North Melbourne and St Kilda hot under the collar. Essendon can only replace Richmond on the ladder should they upset come Saturday. The Tigers have had mixed fortunes over the last couple of weeks. After losing to Carlton in round 14, their captain Graeme Polak was hit by a tram and placed in a coma. Then they came out last week and put 152 points on the struggling West Coast Eagles in a 77 point demolition at Subiaco. This week, the Tigers face the very real possibility that by the end of NEXT week, they could be in the top 8. The last time Richmond were in the top half of the ladder after round 16 was in 2005. The Dons also thumped Brisbane last week but have fared worse than the Tigers in the latter part of recent seasons - the last time they were in the 8 after this round was 2004. It’s hard to say who will win this game. The forward and midfield aggression from the Tigers will combat the solid defence of Essendon. Matthew Richardson and Jake King from the Tigers will both undergo tests for their injuries.
Brent Stanton had a brilliant showing for the Dons last week while Jack Riewoldt picked up the Rising Star nomination for his effort for the Tigers and will be one to watch. Essendon also have an imposing injury list including Mark McVeigh (3-5 weeks).
Tip: Richmond by 17
Saturday 19th July- Gabba, 7:10pm
BRISBANE LIONS vs. WEST COAST
Both teams received thorough beatings last week with Brisbane’s being the most surprising. They have now lost 2 in a row to underdog teams. The Lions really should have defeated Melbourne two matches ago, when they lost it was considered a lucky break. But losing in the manner they did to Essendon last week left many wondering where the seemingly high-flying Lions are headed in the back end of the season? Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw kicked 5 and 4 goals respectively last week so what went wrong? Essendon simply had more ball and more hunger for points. They scored 8 goals to four in the opening quarter and continued to pile on goals including 7 in the fourth quarter. Only three players for Essendon racked up less than 10 disposals. Brisbane’s stars need to fire this week against West Coast. Simon Black (test/shoulder), Travis Johnstone and Luke Power have to return to form and lead the Lions back into a consolidated position within the top 8. West Coast were awful against Richmond last week. A 77 point trouncing speaks for itself. The 11.1 (67) score in the second quarter was the highest scoring quarter of any team in the competition this season. West Coast are floundering at the bottom of the ladder this season and their star players are non apparent. Daniel Kerr has suffered injuries and fought suspension while Dean Cox looks worn out on field. Michael Braun announced his retirement during the week, adding more woe to the Eagles’ locker room. Brisbane couldn’t hope for a better game to get back on track than this one.
Tip: Brisbane by 53
Saturday 19th July – Telstra Dome, 7:10pm
ST KILDA vs. HAWTHORN
Two rosters jam-packed with stars meet in this all important clash as the Saints cling to the 8. St Kilda were re-invigorated with their hard fought win over Carlton last week and proved that they can still be a force in the top 8 after a shaky first half to the season. Jason Gram had a very good game against the Blues and has established himself as one of the Saints myriad of key players. Speaking of those players, does someone want to explain to me why Saints dropped Stephen Milne? The forward/midfielder kicked 5 last week in a shining effort for his side and is on track to win the club’s best and fairest. He will be a threat this week along with Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna. Xavier Clarke may miss, he will undergo a hamstring test. Hawthorn returned to form with a solid outing against Sydney and fought off a spirited fight-back by the Swans to eventually triumph by 31 points. Lance Franklin only managed 4 goals to his 7 behinds this time but was constantly up the field helping out his midfielders. Luke Hodge also had an important game, kicking a superb running goal. Hawthorn may also be lifted by the possible return of star Chance Bateman. The Hawks can advance to 2nd with a win should the Bulldogs lose this week. Saints can potentially move as high as 6th. Shaping up to be a decent encounter, although with the Hawks’ disposal of Sydney last week, I can’t see the Saints winning this one.
Tip: Hawthorn by 39
Sunday 20th July, 2008 – Telstra Dome, 1:10pm
SYDNEY vs. CARLTON
Both teams suffered hard defeats last week with Sydney barely clinging to the top 4 after 2 straight losses. The Swans aren’t coming up against a soft side here either. The Blues are a very unpredictable team and with players the likes of Judd, Fevola and young Bryce Gibbs, they are a difficult side to play. Sydney’s interstate record is about even with 4 wins, 3 losses and a draw. But Carlton’s home record is a worry at 2-5.
More controversy surrounding boom goal-kicker Brendan Fevola emerged this week with rumours he may be heading to Sydney talked down by the star himself. This has been met with suggestions by the club that he sign or walk. Will this affect the game on Saturday? With the professionalism of Fevola, it’s hard to imagine. Sydney know they need a win to consolidate their top 4 position and although it is likely against Carlton, it is not certain. Look for Ryan O’Keefe and Adam Goodes to combine here with young Craig Bird to stand up as well. It’s crunch time for the Blues who need just a win to make the top 8. Perhaps it will happen here?
Tip: Carlton by 12
Sunday 20th July, 2008 – AAMI Stadium, 2:40pm
PORT ADELAIDE vs. ADELAIDE
The biggest rivalry in South Australia unleashes its fury at AAMI on Sunday. Showdown XXV will be underway at 2:40pm and it is more important than ever for the Crows especially.
Adelaide find themselves fighting desperately to stay in the top 8 after a 32 point loss to Collingwood. To compound their problem, Brett Burton requires a full knee reconstruction after collapsing on the field last week and will be sidelined for 12 months. Their other major goal-kicker, Jason Porplyzia, went off the field with a shoulder injury and is likely to miss. These events could not have come at a worse time for the Crows who were sitting in the top 4 only 3 weeks ago. With a loss here, they could drop out of finals contention. Simon Goodwin must lead his team against their arch-enemies Port. The Power are struggling this year and showed that last week against the Kangaroos at home. They have a decent line-up but it hasn’t delivered them the wins they need this season. Daniel Motlop has kicked 40 goals this season – 8th in the league – and will be a threat. As far as the winner is concerned, this could go either way as Adelaide certainly don’t look like a finals team. Port have been blessed with the loss of Brett Burton and may be a chance here.
Tip: Adelaide by 6
Sunday 20th July, 2008 – Subiaco, 2:40pm
FREMANTLE vs. MELBOURNE
Clash of the lightweights here as 14th takes on dead last. Can’t see this being much of a game although the two teams are lucky that this match is being held in round 16 so to avoid ‘tanking’ claims that emerged last season (pish tosh). Dean Solomon (FRE) was this week suspended for 8 weeks for his elbow strike on Cameron Ling. The Demons come into this match after a solid showing against the Bulldogs losing by only 31 points while Fremantle were smashed by 74 points against a rampant Geelong. Cameron Bruce had a brilliant game as always for the Dees and must be controlled on Sunday. Rhys Palmer from Freo has had a great rookie season and must fire against Melbourne if his side will win.
Tip: Fremantle by 16
Last Week 6/8
Friday 18th July, 2008 – Telstra Dome, 7:40pm
COLLINGWOOD vs. NORTH MELBOURNE
An interesting match-up as both teams have recorded opposite mid-season results. The Kangaroos have slid somewhat in the last few weeks to 9th while Collingwood have enjoyed two very pleasing wins over difficult opponents to see themselves a mere 2 points out of the top 4. One component of Collingwood’s play to look out for here is their use of the ball up the wings. Collingwood are one of the most effective teams in moving the ball from the kick-in to a scoring position as they often surprise teams with their efficiency up the flanks. North Melbourne will also need to be wary of the switch to the open side of the field as the Magpies have plenty of speed in the midfield. Where the Kangaroos can apply some serious pressure is with Collingwood’s indecisiveness. Kicking and handballing backwards and to marked players often leads to turnovers and with the Kangaroos’ defence, it could pose a problem to the Pies. Dale Thomas and Paul Medhurst have both found form of recent for the Pies while Daniel Harris and Adam Simpson’s defensive work and of course Brent Harvey’s attack could pose a problem for the Black and Whites. Last time they met, it was the Roos by 7. With both teams coming off difficult wins, this could be a thriller.
Saturday 19th July, 2008 – Skilled Stadium, 2:10pm
GEELONG vs. WESTERN BULLDOGS
With Gary Ablett Jr. and Cameron Ling out, this is shaping up to be a match of the year candidate. Both teams are looking to secure top 2 spots on the ladder. With a win here, the Bulldogs can claim the mantle of ‘top dogs’ in the competition. Geelong are simply brilliant all across the field. Their defence is outstanding, second only to Sydney, the midfield is one of the best in the league – sporting last year’s Brownlow medallist – and their forward line is second only to the Bulldogs in terms of points scored. Losing Ablett will be a huge blow not only to the Cats point scoring and ball-movement, but also mentally. Ablett is the type of player that adds massive amounts of confidence to a team. Also, with Ling gone for 3-4 weeks, the Cats suffer a great loss as he is one of the better defenders in the league.
Tip: Bulldogs by 9
Saturday 19th July, 2008 – MCG, 2:10pm
RICHMOND vs. ESSENDON
11th plays 12th here as the Tigers, who thumped West Coast last week, take on the Bombers who, in defeating the Lions last match, won their fourth game in a row. The Bombers are tipped to be possible dark horses this year. By the end of round 21, is it possible that the Dons could be in the 8? Another win here will definitely have teams like Carlton, North Melbourne and St Kilda hot under the collar. Essendon can only replace Richmond on the ladder should they upset come Saturday. The Tigers have had mixed fortunes over the last couple of weeks. After losing to Carlton in round 14, their captain Graeme Polak was hit by a tram and placed in a coma. Then they came out last week and put 152 points on the struggling West Coast Eagles in a 77 point demolition at Subiaco. This week, the Tigers face the very real possibility that by the end of NEXT week, they could be in the top 8. The last time Richmond were in the top half of the ladder after round 16 was in 2005. The Dons also thumped Brisbane last week but have fared worse than the Tigers in the latter part of recent seasons - the last time they were in the 8 after this round was 2004. It’s hard to say who will win this game. The forward and midfield aggression from the Tigers will combat the solid defence of Essendon. Matthew Richardson and Jake King from the Tigers will both undergo tests for their injuries.
Brent Stanton had a brilliant showing for the Dons last week while Jack Riewoldt picked up the Rising Star nomination for his effort for the Tigers and will be one to watch. Essendon also have an imposing injury list including Mark McVeigh (3-5 weeks).
Tip: Richmond by 17
Saturday 19th July- Gabba, 7:10pm
BRISBANE LIONS vs. WEST COAST
Both teams received thorough beatings last week with Brisbane’s being the most surprising. They have now lost 2 in a row to underdog teams. The Lions really should have defeated Melbourne two matches ago, when they lost it was considered a lucky break. But losing in the manner they did to Essendon last week left many wondering where the seemingly high-flying Lions are headed in the back end of the season? Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw kicked 5 and 4 goals respectively last week so what went wrong? Essendon simply had more ball and more hunger for points. They scored 8 goals to four in the opening quarter and continued to pile on goals including 7 in the fourth quarter. Only three players for Essendon racked up less than 10 disposals. Brisbane’s stars need to fire this week against West Coast. Simon Black (test/shoulder), Travis Johnstone and Luke Power have to return to form and lead the Lions back into a consolidated position within the top 8. West Coast were awful against Richmond last week. A 77 point trouncing speaks for itself. The 11.1 (67) score in the second quarter was the highest scoring quarter of any team in the competition this season. West Coast are floundering at the bottom of the ladder this season and their star players are non apparent. Daniel Kerr has suffered injuries and fought suspension while Dean Cox looks worn out on field. Michael Braun announced his retirement during the week, adding more woe to the Eagles’ locker room. Brisbane couldn’t hope for a better game to get back on track than this one.
Tip: Brisbane by 53
Saturday 19th July – Telstra Dome, 7:10pm
ST KILDA vs. HAWTHORN
Two rosters jam-packed with stars meet in this all important clash as the Saints cling to the 8. St Kilda were re-invigorated with their hard fought win over Carlton last week and proved that they can still be a force in the top 8 after a shaky first half to the season. Jason Gram had a very good game against the Blues and has established himself as one of the Saints myriad of key players. Speaking of those players, does someone want to explain to me why Saints dropped Stephen Milne? The forward/midfielder kicked 5 last week in a shining effort for his side and is on track to win the club’s best and fairest. He will be a threat this week along with Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna. Xavier Clarke may miss, he will undergo a hamstring test. Hawthorn returned to form with a solid outing against Sydney and fought off a spirited fight-back by the Swans to eventually triumph by 31 points. Lance Franklin only managed 4 goals to his 7 behinds this time but was constantly up the field helping out his midfielders. Luke Hodge also had an important game, kicking a superb running goal. Hawthorn may also be lifted by the possible return of star Chance Bateman. The Hawks can advance to 2nd with a win should the Bulldogs lose this week. Saints can potentially move as high as 6th. Shaping up to be a decent encounter, although with the Hawks’ disposal of Sydney last week, I can’t see the Saints winning this one.
Tip: Hawthorn by 39
Sunday 20th July, 2008 – Telstra Dome, 1:10pm
SYDNEY vs. CARLTON
Both teams suffered hard defeats last week with Sydney barely clinging to the top 4 after 2 straight losses. The Swans aren’t coming up against a soft side here either. The Blues are a very unpredictable team and with players the likes of Judd, Fevola and young Bryce Gibbs, they are a difficult side to play. Sydney’s interstate record is about even with 4 wins, 3 losses and a draw. But Carlton’s home record is a worry at 2-5.
More controversy surrounding boom goal-kicker Brendan Fevola emerged this week with rumours he may be heading to Sydney talked down by the star himself. This has been met with suggestions by the club that he sign or walk. Will this affect the game on Saturday? With the professionalism of Fevola, it’s hard to imagine. Sydney know they need a win to consolidate their top 4 position and although it is likely against Carlton, it is not certain. Look for Ryan O’Keefe and Adam Goodes to combine here with young Craig Bird to stand up as well. It’s crunch time for the Blues who need just a win to make the top 8. Perhaps it will happen here?
Tip: Carlton by 12
Sunday 20th July, 2008 – AAMI Stadium, 2:40pm
PORT ADELAIDE vs. ADELAIDE
The biggest rivalry in South Australia unleashes its fury at AAMI on Sunday. Showdown XXV will be underway at 2:40pm and it is more important than ever for the Crows especially.
Adelaide find themselves fighting desperately to stay in the top 8 after a 32 point loss to Collingwood. To compound their problem, Brett Burton requires a full knee reconstruction after collapsing on the field last week and will be sidelined for 12 months. Their other major goal-kicker, Jason Porplyzia, went off the field with a shoulder injury and is likely to miss. These events could not have come at a worse time for the Crows who were sitting in the top 4 only 3 weeks ago. With a loss here, they could drop out of finals contention. Simon Goodwin must lead his team against their arch-enemies Port. The Power are struggling this year and showed that last week against the Kangaroos at home. They have a decent line-up but it hasn’t delivered them the wins they need this season. Daniel Motlop has kicked 40 goals this season – 8th in the league – and will be a threat. As far as the winner is concerned, this could go either way as Adelaide certainly don’t look like a finals team. Port have been blessed with the loss of Brett Burton and may be a chance here.
Tip: Adelaide by 6
Sunday 20th July, 2008 – Subiaco, 2:40pm
FREMANTLE vs. MELBOURNE
Clash of the lightweights here as 14th takes on dead last. Can’t see this being much of a game although the two teams are lucky that this match is being held in round 16 so to avoid ‘tanking’ claims that emerged last season (pish tosh). Dean Solomon (FRE) was this week suspended for 8 weeks for his elbow strike on Cameron Ling. The Demons come into this match after a solid showing against the Bulldogs losing by only 31 points while Fremantle were smashed by 74 points against a rampant Geelong. Cameron Bruce had a brilliant game as always for the Dees and must be controlled on Sunday. Rhys Palmer from Freo has had a great rookie season and must fire against Melbourne if his side will win.
Tip: Fremantle by 16
Last Week 6/8
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