Matt PoyntingAFL round 7 previews
April 30th 2008 09:03
Previews (all times local)
For all you tippers out there, here's my take on things.
West Coast vs Carlton – Subiaco, Friday (6:40pm)
This won’t be a great game. I think Carlton could be a chance. 2 years ago you never would have heard me say this but the old Navy Blues may just be a hope against a weakened West Coast. It will be interesting to see how Chris Judd performs against his old club. With him at the helm and Brendan Fevola kicking bags every week, they will be far more competitive than in recent years. As for West Coast, Daniel Kerr is out suspended for a headbutting incident that occurred against the Bulldogs and therefore a great amount of demand will be placed on the shoulders of Dean Cox – the last remaining superstar of the West Coast powerhouse that was two years ago (Judd, Cousins, Cox, Kerr). The Eagles still have great players but they will find it hard without Kerr.
Tip: Carlton by 10 points
Geelong vs Brisbane – Skilled Stadium, Saturday (2:10pm)
Oh wow! I cannot wait for this one. This is shaping up to be the game of the year. If the two sides’ recent performances are anything to go by, Brisbane will definitely trouble the Cats. Geelong are undefeated so far but they have put in some shaky performances, namely the 30 point win over Melbourne in round 3 and last week’s effort against Fremantle winning by a mere point. Brisbane – on the other hand – have been simply superb. With a forward line consisting of Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, they will definitely pose a threat up the ground. Simon Black is in his 2002 Brownlow form along with Luke Power in the middle and with an array of capable backmen, they will go close and possibly even win this one. Geelong however are at home and with the amount of stars in that team – Gary Ablett Jr, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, Cameron Ling etc, Brisbane will have a challenge. But they might just do it.
Tip: Brisbane by 3 points
Hawthorn vs Collingwood – MCG, Saturday (2:10pm)
This is shaping up to be another cracker. The ‘Baby Magpies’ with Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas, Tyson Goldsack and Marty Clarke to name a few, up against the best forward line in the League with Lance Franklin, Jaryd Roughhead and Cyril Rioli. That’s to compliment Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman and Luke Hodge. This should be an extremely tight game. At the moment it’s incredibly hard to tip but I’d have to go Collingwood. They are finding form heading into round 7 having thumped Essendon. Hawthorn are looking good as well being one of only three undefeated teams and definitely the most convincing of themselves, Geelong and Western Bulldogs. I believe that Paul Medhurst will match it up front with Hawthorn’s backmen while, if he has a good day, Travis Cloke will provide some solid goal kicking support. Collingwood are equal first in contested marks in the league with 62 and equal second in most kicks per game. This could prove dangerous.
Tip: Collingwood by 15 points
Richmond vs St Kilda – TD, Saturday (7:10pm)
This may just be interesting. St Kilda have been very underwhelming this season after being touted as premiership contenders at the start of the year. With their forward line consisting of Fraser Gehrig, Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koscitzke, the Saints should be firing up front. Instead, St Kilda are second last in the contested marks department and have kicked a total of 78.61 this season. Riewoldt, who was up there in predicted Coleman players this season, is ranked equal 11th in the goal count with 15 – half that of leader Lance Franklin. For Richmond, Matt Richardson is ranked 4th in the Coleman count with 19, still well behind third (Brendan Fevola – 27). The Tigers have played very well and amazingly drew with the undefeated Bulldogs two weeks ago. With their players starting to gel as a team and find form, they could give the favoured Saints a run for their money. Look out for the rehabilitated Nathan Brown and Jake King who is in fine form as well.
Tip: Richmond by 2 points
Adelaide vs North Melbourne – AAMI Stadium, Saturday (7:10pm)
The Crows have performed quite well this season and are looking in good form for the finals. Two of their players are in the top 7 Coleman contenders (Brett Burton and Simon Goodwin). Adelaide have also been quite accurate (89.57). The Crows will be happy with their 30 point win over Carlton and should get up here although the Kangaroos are very unpredictable. The Roos have had two great results in two weeks, beating Collingwood by 7 points and then drawing with Sydney last week. Nathan Thompson is up there in the top 10 in the Coleman and Corey Jones and Shannon Grant are providing more options up forward. There is also the run in the middle with last year’s NM best and fairest Brent Harvey. Crows will be too hard to beat though at home.
Tip: Crows by 17 points
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs – SCG, Sunday (1:10pm)
This will be a close one as well. Sydney will be looking to really bounce back after a controversial draw against North. Adam Goodes appears to be underperforming this year and not the man to look for. His coach Paul Roos was a bit worried but is sure that his main man can find form soon. In the Swans’ camp, Ryan O’Keefe is really performing well this year as is young Keiran Jack and Darren Jolly in the rucks. Barry Hall continues to serve his suspension/injury time and this is hurting the Swans – scoring their second lowest total for the season against the Kangas. The Bulldogs will be feeling good with their 50 point disposal of a lacklustre West Coast after leading all night and will rest assured they can put a team away. Many players performing well namely Ryan Griffen and Jason Akermanis. Brad Johnson is still proving a force as a small forward option and Scott Welsh is playing great footy in the centre. The ‘Dogs will be hard to beat although Sydney have a good record at the Cricket Ground.
Tip: Bulldogs by 9 points
Melbourne vs Fremantle – MCG, Sunday arvo (2:10pm)
I can’t see Melbourne winning this. Their crowd support at the moment obviously isn’t great and therefore the home field advantage won’t prove to be much of a hassle to the Dockers. It’s hard to see Melbourne really going anywhere this season except a priority draft pick. They have been very disappointing except for one shining effort against Geelong in which they still went down by 30 points. Now, Geelong are a great side but when 30 points is considered a good effort it isn’t all that flattering. Russell Robertson has been regularly kicking his side’s goals but is only ranked 28th in the Coleman count with 11. Brock McLean is ranked 7th in the league for disposals. The Dockers are really hitting the form they were tipped to crack at the start of the year. Their one point loss to Geelong is one of the best efforts we have seen for the last 2 years and, although shattering, a very positive step in the right direction for the club. Matthew Pavlich is kicking goals and Aaron Sandilands is dominating in the rucks – all 211cm of him – with 175 hit-outs, the most in the league. Melbourne will not win this one. Fremantle are in the right form to set them up for a big win here.
Tip: Fremantle by 39 points
Essendon vs Port Adelaide – TD, Sunday (4:40pm)
Essendon are one of those sides that, just when they look like they are going places, lose by a big margin and ‘throw it away’. They will struggle to go the distance against Port Adelaide who, although they have had an average start to 2008, are sorting things out and finding rhythm. They have now won two in a row against decent teams – West Coast and St Kilda – which shows that they are improving as a side. Port are also another team that seems to have it all going before capitulating (for example, Brisbane at AAMI Stadium in round 4). If they can control the pace of this game for the full four quarters, they will win comfortably. Alwyn Davey was ruled out for the season this week and that will definitely hurt Essendon. He is a great player and a real asset. Matthew Lloyd will be strong up front as he was on ANZAC Day and he will be supported by 13-years-in-the-making forward revelation Dustin Fletcher. The Kornes and Burgoyne brothers should repeat their strong showings so far for Port and will be supported by captain Warren Tredrea.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 23 points
Should be a good round!
For all you tippers out there, here's my take on things.
West Coast vs Carlton – Subiaco, Friday (6:40pm)
This won’t be a great game. I think Carlton could be a chance. 2 years ago you never would have heard me say this but the old Navy Blues may just be a hope against a weakened West Coast. It will be interesting to see how Chris Judd performs against his old club. With him at the helm and Brendan Fevola kicking bags every week, they will be far more competitive than in recent years. As for West Coast, Daniel Kerr is out suspended for a headbutting incident that occurred against the Bulldogs and therefore a great amount of demand will be placed on the shoulders of Dean Cox – the last remaining superstar of the West Coast powerhouse that was two years ago (Judd, Cousins, Cox, Kerr). The Eagles still have great players but they will find it hard without Kerr.
Geelong vs Brisbane – Skilled Stadium, Saturday (2:10pm)
Oh wow! I cannot wait for this one. This is shaping up to be the game of the year. If the two sides’ recent performances are anything to go by, Brisbane will definitely trouble the Cats. Geelong are undefeated so far but they have put in some shaky performances, namely the 30 point win over Melbourne in round 3 and last week’s effort against Fremantle winning by a mere point. Brisbane – on the other hand – have been simply superb. With a forward line consisting of Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, they will definitely pose a threat up the ground. Simon Black is in his 2002 Brownlow form along with Luke Power in the middle and with an array of capable backmen, they will go close and possibly even win this one. Geelong however are at home and with the amount of stars in that team – Gary Ablett Jr, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, Cameron Ling etc, Brisbane will have a challenge. But they might just do it.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood – MCG, Saturday (2:10pm)
This is shaping up to be another cracker. The ‘Baby Magpies’ with Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas, Tyson Goldsack and Marty Clarke to name a few, up against the best forward line in the League with Lance Franklin, Jaryd Roughhead and Cyril Rioli. That’s to compliment Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman and Luke Hodge. This should be an extremely tight game. At the moment it’s incredibly hard to tip but I’d have to go Collingwood. They are finding form heading into round 7 having thumped Essendon. Hawthorn are looking good as well being one of only three undefeated teams and definitely the most convincing of themselves, Geelong and Western Bulldogs. I believe that Paul Medhurst will match it up front with Hawthorn’s backmen while, if he has a good day, Travis Cloke will provide some solid goal kicking support. Collingwood are equal first in contested marks in the league with 62 and equal second in most kicks per game. This could prove dangerous.
Tip: Collingwood by 15 points
Richmond vs St Kilda – TD, Saturday (7:10pm)
This may just be interesting. St Kilda have been very underwhelming this season after being touted as premiership contenders at the start of the year. With their forward line consisting of Fraser Gehrig, Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koscitzke, the Saints should be firing up front. Instead, St Kilda are second last in the contested marks department and have kicked a total of 78.61 this season. Riewoldt, who was up there in predicted Coleman players this season, is ranked equal 11th in the goal count with 15 – half that of leader Lance Franklin. For Richmond, Matt Richardson is ranked 4th in the Coleman count with 19, still well behind third (Brendan Fevola – 27). The Tigers have played very well and amazingly drew with the undefeated Bulldogs two weeks ago. With their players starting to gel as a team and find form, they could give the favoured Saints a run for their money. Look out for the rehabilitated Nathan Brown and Jake King who is in fine form as well.
Tip: Richmond by 2 points
Adelaide vs North Melbourne – AAMI Stadium, Saturday (7:10pm)
The Crows have performed quite well this season and are looking in good form for the finals. Two of their players are in the top 7 Coleman contenders (Brett Burton and Simon Goodwin). Adelaide have also been quite accurate (89.57). The Crows will be happy with their 30 point win over Carlton and should get up here although the Kangaroos are very unpredictable. The Roos have had two great results in two weeks, beating Collingwood by 7 points and then drawing with Sydney last week. Nathan Thompson is up there in the top 10 in the Coleman and Corey Jones and Shannon Grant are providing more options up forward. There is also the run in the middle with last year’s NM best and fairest Brent Harvey. Crows will be too hard to beat though at home.
Tip: Crows by 17 points
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs – SCG, Sunday (1:10pm)
This will be a close one as well. Sydney will be looking to really bounce back after a controversial draw against North. Adam Goodes appears to be underperforming this year and not the man to look for. His coach Paul Roos was a bit worried but is sure that his main man can find form soon. In the Swans’ camp, Ryan O’Keefe is really performing well this year as is young Keiran Jack and Darren Jolly in the rucks. Barry Hall continues to serve his suspension/injury time and this is hurting the Swans – scoring their second lowest total for the season against the Kangas. The Bulldogs will be feeling good with their 50 point disposal of a lacklustre West Coast after leading all night and will rest assured they can put a team away. Many players performing well namely Ryan Griffen and Jason Akermanis. Brad Johnson is still proving a force as a small forward option and Scott Welsh is playing great footy in the centre. The ‘Dogs will be hard to beat although Sydney have a good record at the Cricket Ground.
Tip: Bulldogs by 9 points
Melbourne vs Fremantle – MCG, Sunday arvo (2:10pm)
I can’t see Melbourne winning this. Their crowd support at the moment obviously isn’t great and therefore the home field advantage won’t prove to be much of a hassle to the Dockers. It’s hard to see Melbourne really going anywhere this season except a priority draft pick. They have been very disappointing except for one shining effort against Geelong in which they still went down by 30 points. Now, Geelong are a great side but when 30 points is considered a good effort it isn’t all that flattering. Russell Robertson has been regularly kicking his side’s goals but is only ranked 28th in the Coleman count with 11. Brock McLean is ranked 7th in the league for disposals. The Dockers are really hitting the form they were tipped to crack at the start of the year. Their one point loss to Geelong is one of the best efforts we have seen for the last 2 years and, although shattering, a very positive step in the right direction for the club. Matthew Pavlich is kicking goals and Aaron Sandilands is dominating in the rucks – all 211cm of him – with 175 hit-outs, the most in the league. Melbourne will not win this one. Fremantle are in the right form to set them up for a big win here.
Tip: Fremantle by 39 points
Essendon vs Port Adelaide – TD, Sunday (4:40pm)
Essendon are one of those sides that, just when they look like they are going places, lose by a big margin and ‘throw it away’. They will struggle to go the distance against Port Adelaide who, although they have had an average start to 2008, are sorting things out and finding rhythm. They have now won two in a row against decent teams – West Coast and St Kilda – which shows that they are improving as a side. Port are also another team that seems to have it all going before capitulating (for example, Brisbane at AAMI Stadium in round 4). If they can control the pace of this game for the full four quarters, they will win comfortably. Alwyn Davey was ruled out for the season this week and that will definitely hurt Essendon. He is a great player and a real asset. Matthew Lloyd will be strong up front as he was on ANZAC Day and he will be supported by 13-years-in-the-making forward revelation Dustin Fletcher. The Kornes and Burgoyne brothers should repeat their strong showings so far for Port and will be supported by captain Warren Tredrea.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 23 points
Should be a good round!
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